Economic Anxiety Cools Spring 2025 Home Sales: Q2 Report
The Canadian real estate market—typically energized by a spring buying surge—has experienced a surprisingly quiet second quarter in 2025. Despite stable interest rates and a strong employment backdrop, widespread economic concerns, global instability, and domestic political shifts weighed heavily on buyer confidence. The result: a sluggish start to the busiest real estate season of the year, with home prices staying mostly flat and activity softening in some of Canada’s largest and most influential markets.
This Q2 2025 housing market report outlines national and regional price trends, explains why buyer hesitation is dominating the market, and explores what the second half of the year may hold for Canadian real estate.
National Market at a Glance
Canada’s aggregate home price rose just 0.3% year-over-year in Q2 2025, coming in at $826,400, while quarter-over-quarter, prices declined slightly by 0.4%. The market continues to tread water as economic uncertainty limits the usual spring momentum.
Inventory levels increased in many markets—giving buyers more options—but demand hasn’t followed at the same pace. Sellers are still listing homes, but buyer activity remains muted as many households adopt a cautious “wait and see” approach.
Why the Spring Market Slowed Down
Spring is typically the most active time for real estate, but in 2025, several forces disrupted this seasonal trend:
- Interest Rate Stability with Uncertain Outlook: The Bank of Canada maintained its key lending rate at 2.75%, citing concerns about global trade tensions and the need for more economic clarity. While stable rates are often good news for real estate, uncertainty about future rate moves left some buyers on the sidelines.
- Political Disruption: Canada saw a change in leadership this spring, with the swearing-in of a new Prime Minister. Election-related speculation, particularly around housing policy and the federal budget, created temporary uncertainty in markets like Ottawa, where government employment plays a major role in household finances.
- Global Economic Tensions: Trade instability and international conflicts contributed to a lack of confidence among both buyers and investors. Concerns about the broader economy have become deeply tied to real estate activity, especially in high-priced urban markets.
Affordability Improving in Key Markets
Despite the muted activity, there is a silver lining: housing affordability has shown signs of improvement, especially in the most expensive provinces.
Since the 2022 peak in home prices, national values have declined by 3.6%, while average weekly earnings have climbed by 11.8%. This gap—alongside stable interest rates—has helped shift the affordability equation in favor of buyers, particularly those entering the market for the first time.
However, experts caution that this progress is fragile. A long-term solution still hinges on increasing housing supply across Canada to meet demand and stabilize pricing.
Regional Market Highlights
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
Home prices in the GTA declined 3.0% year-over-year, settling at $1,155,300. Single-family detached homes saw a smaller drop of 1.2%, while condo prices fell by 5.6%.
Although the typical spring surge failed to materialize, a rebound in buyer activity from mid-May through June suggests the tide may be turning. Some first-time buyers are now viewing the current lull as a window of opportunity.
Greater Montreal Area
Montreal outperformed other major markets, with home prices rising 3.5% year-over-year to $620,100. Detached homes led growth at 5.7%, followed by condos at 3.1%.
Despite a recent increase in listings, buyer interest remains strong—particularly among first-time buyers seeking affordable options in a still-accessible market. A gradual market cooling is expected into the fall as inventory builds.
Greater Vancouver
Vancouver home prices declined 2.6% year-over-year to $1,218,600, with detached homes down 2.4% and condos down 2.3%.
Buyer urgency remains low, and a growing number of listings is pushing the market toward balance—or even oversupply in certain segments. Investor interest in new construction has cooled significantly, and many buyers are holding off in hopes of further price drops.
Ottawa
Ottawa recorded a modest 0.6% year-over-year increase to $782,100. The market started slow, influenced by the federal election, but open house traffic and multiple-offer scenarios began to re-emerge in June.
The condo segment is especially active, serving as an affordable entry point for first-time buyers. A delayed spring is expected to shift momentum into a more active summer.
Calgary
Calgary’s market held steady with a 0.4% year-over-year gain to $696,500. Detached homes posted a 1.2% increase, while condo prices declined 1.6%.
Inventory growth is giving buyers more options, contributing to a more balanced market. Sentiment remains positive, with consistent interest from both first-time and move-up buyers.
What Buyers Are Thinking
A recent national survey revealed that 28% of renters considered buying a home before renewing their lease. Their reasons for holding back included:
- Waiting for home prices to decline – 40%
- Waiting for interest rates to drop further – 29%
- Still saving for a down payment – 28%
This highlights a critical trend: buyers are interested, but hesitant. Economic conditions are not pushing people out of the market—they’re merely causing delays.
A Glimmer of Confidence Ahead
The final weeks of Q2 2025 saw the beginnings of an upward trend in showings and open house attendance. In major cities like Toronto and Vancouver, buyer interest is returning, even if transactions haven’t caught up yet.
Encouragingly, Canada’s June employment report was strong, and signs suggest that economic sentiment may begin to rebound. If confidence returns, the fall market could be significantly more active than spring.
Revised Market Forecast for 2025
Based on Q2 performance, the national forecast for year-end home prices has been revised slightly downward. Home values are now expected to increase by 3.5% year-over-year in Q4 2025. The bulk of this growth is likely to happen in the fall, assuming stability in the broader economy.
Forecasted year-end growth by region:
- GTA: +2.0%
- Montreal: +6.5%
- Vancouver: +1.5%
- Ottawa: +4.0%
- Calgary: +3.0%
These projections reflect cautious optimism, tempered by the possibility of further economic or political disruptions.
Policy Priorities for Affordability
With a new federal government in place, attention has shifted to policies aimed at improving affordability. Top priorities include:
- Streamlining permitting and approval processes
- Expanding infrastructure to support new development
- Incentivizing the creation of purpose-built rental housing
The upcoming federal budget will be critical in determining whether Canada can overcome its housing supply challenges in a meaningful way.
Final Thoughts
The spring 2025 housing market didn’t bring the usual wave of transactions, but it did provide an important signal: buyers are watching closely and waiting for the right moment to act. Economic anxiety may have cooled demand temporarily, but strong fundamentals—stable employment, growing wages, and rising inventory—are laying the groundwork for a potential rebound.
If confidence returns and policy action aligns with market needs, the latter half of 2025 could usher in a healthier, more balanced phase for Canadian real estate.